{
  "study": "41 Hours of AI Provider Outages, and the 1 Hour That Mattered",
  "date": "2026-11-07",
  "notes": {
    "code_counts": "Lines in the files behind each feature at one commit of ModelRiver's private repository; a 5,650-line file that mixes features is excluded, so counts are low. They include multi-tenant work, so they measure what it took ModelRiver, not what one app needs.",
    "fix_commits": "Non-merge commits touching a feature whose subject says fix, bug, regression, race, leak, crash, hotfix or broken.",
    "benchmarks": "Local server built from the same commit, mock provider answering in exactly 200 ms (failures instant), response cache off. 'production-like' = production logging level, no code reloading; 'development defaults' = unmodified development settings. One Apple M1 laptop (8 cores); each scenario started below a 1-minute load average of 4."
  },
  "features": {
    "gateway_failover": {
      "title": "Multi-provider gateway and failover",
      "production_lines": 8726,
      "test_lines": 4497,
      "decisions_made": 12,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 0,
      "database_tables": 3,
      "commits": 65,
      "fix_commits": 17,
      "changed_since": "2025-11"
    },
    "async_realtime": {
      "title": "Async requests delivered to the browser over WebSocket",
      "production_lines": 6824,
      "test_lines": 2614,
      "decisions_made": 13,
      "background_workers": 3,
      "in_memory_caches": 2,
      "database_tables": 2,
      "commits": 91,
      "fix_commits": 33,
      "changed_since": "2025-11"
    },
    "webhooks": {
      "title": "Signed webhooks with retries",
      "production_lines": 2324,
      "test_lines": 5659,
      "decisions_made": 9,
      "background_workers": 1,
      "in_memory_caches": 0,
      "database_tables": 3,
      "commits": 22,
      "fix_commits": 9,
      "changed_since": "2025-11"
    },
    "callbacks_pipelines": {
      "title": "Event-driven callbacks to your backend (multi-step pipelines)",
      "production_lines": 3500,
      "test_lines": 3067,
      "decisions_made": 5,
      "background_workers": 2,
      "in_memory_caches": 1,
      "database_tables": 4,
      "commits": 35,
      "fix_commits": 10,
      "changed_since": "2026-01"
    },
    "streaming": {
      "title": "Token streaming (SSE and WebSocket)",
      "production_lines": 2881,
      "test_lines": 544,
      "decisions_made": 8,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 0,
      "database_tables": 0,
      "commits": 25,
      "fix_commits": 4,
      "changed_since": "2026-05"
    },
    "sessions": {
      "title": "Conversation memory (sessions)",
      "production_lines": 2244,
      "test_lines": 3530,
      "decisions_made": 6,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 0,
      "database_tables": 3,
      "commits": 17,
      "fix_commits": 5,
      "changed_since": "2026-08"
    },
    "response_cache": {
      "title": "Response cache",
      "production_lines": 694,
      "test_lines": 961,
      "decisions_made": 3,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 1,
      "database_tables": 1,
      "commits": 9,
      "fix_commits": 1,
      "changed_since": "2025-11"
    },
    "structured_outputs": {
      "title": "Structured output (JSON Schema) validation",
      "production_lines": 499,
      "test_lines": 580,
      "decisions_made": 1,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 0,
      "database_tables": 1,
      "commits": 3,
      "fix_commits": 1,
      "changed_since": "2026-08"
    },
    "budgets": {
      "title": "Spend caps (budgets)",
      "production_lines": 1502,
      "test_lines": 844,
      "decisions_made": 5,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 1,
      "database_tables": 1,
      "commits": 7,
      "fix_commits": 0,
      "changed_since": "2026-07"
    },
    "guardrails": {
      "title": "Input guardrails (content moderation)",
      "production_lines": 1408,
      "test_lines": 1539,
      "decisions_made": 9,
      "background_workers": 0,
      "in_memory_caches": 2,
      "database_tables": 1,
      "commits": 9,
      "fix_commits": 2,
      "changed_since": "2026-06"
    },
    "logs_usage": {
      "title": "Request logs and cost tracking",
      "production_lines": 1595,
      "test_lines": 562,
      "decisions_made": 3,
      "background_workers": 1,
      "in_memory_caches": 0,
      "database_tables": 4,
      "commits": 33,
      "fix_commits": 2,
      "changed_since": "2025-11"
    }
  },
  "totals": {
    "production_lines": 32197,
    "test_lines": 24397,
    "decisions_made": 74,
    "background_workers": 7,
    "in_memory_caches": 7,
    "commits": 160,
    "fix_commits": 48,
    "commits_last_90_days": 57
  },
  "benchmarks": {
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      "profile": "production-like",
      "machine_load": {
        "sync_overhead": {
          "waited_s": 50,
          "load1_at_start": 3.95,
          "load1_at_end": 3.87,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "failover": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 3.87,
          "load1_at_end": 2.2,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "async_delivery": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 2.2,
          "load1_at_end": 2.45,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "event_driven": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 2.45,
          "load1_at_end": 8.02,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "footprint": {
          "waited_s": 65,
          "load1_at_start": 3.91,
          "load1_at_end": 3.61,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "webhook_retry": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 2.1,
          "load1_at_end": 2.49,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "throughput": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 2.49,
          "load1_at_end": 4.75,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        }
      },
      "sync": {
        "end_to_end_ms": {
          "n": 300,
          "p50": 238,
          "p95": 246,
          "p99": 252.8
        },
        "provider_ms": {
          "n": 300,
          "p50": 204,
          "p95": 206,
          "p99": 208
        },
        "added_by_modelriver_ms": {
          "n": 300,
          "p50": 33.2,
          "p95": 41.6,
          "p99": 46.8
        }
      },
      "failover": {
        "primary_ok": {
          "requests": 150,
          "answered": 150,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 236.3,
            "p95": 242,
            "p99": 246.8
          }
        },
        "primary_500_then_backup": {
          "requests": 150,
          "answered": 150,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 253.2,
            "p95": 267.8,
            "p99": 279.9
          }
        },
        "primary_429_then_backup": {
          "requests": 150,
          "answered": 150,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 253.4,
            "p95": 266.9,
            "p99": 289.9
          }
        },
        "two_failures_then_backup_2": {
          "requests": 150,
          "answered": 150,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 270.5,
            "p95": 294.8,
            "p99": 311.4
          }
        },
        "added_ms": {
          "one_failover_500": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 18.4,
            "p95": 32.6,
            "p99": 41.5
          },
          "one_failover_429": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 18.3,
            "p95": 32.6,
            "p99": 48.9
          },
          "two_failovers": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 35,
            "p95": 57.3,
            "p99": 75
          }
        }
      },
      "async": {
        "requests": 200,
        "delivered_live": 200,
        "accepted_ms": {
          "n": 200,
          "p50": 24.8,
          "p95": 41.9,
          "p99": 59.8
        },
        "browser_connected_ms": {
          "n": 200,
          "p50": 2,
          "p95": 4,
          "p99": 5.4
        },
        "queue_wait_ms": {
          "n": 200,
          "p50": 7.5,
          "p95": 9.7,
          "p99": 11.7
        },
        "accepted_to_result_ms": {
          "n": 200,
          "p50": 228.8,
          "p95": 238.8,
          "p99": 266.3
        },
        "accepted_to_webhook_ms": {
          "n": 200,
          "p50": 251.9,
          "p95": 273.8,
          "p99": 326.9
        }
      },
      "orchestrated": {
        "requests": 100,
        "completed": 100,
        "accepted_to_final_ms": {
          "n": 100,
          "p50": 313.5,
          "p95": 373.1,
          "p99": 461.5
        }
      },
      "per_request_footprint": {
        "sync_request": {
          "provider_calls": 1,
          "background_jobs": 0,
          "database_rows": 1,
          "webhooks": 0,
          "live_updates": 0
        },
        "sync_request_with_failover": {
          "provider_calls": 2,
          "background_jobs": 0,
          "database_rows": 2,
          "webhooks": 0,
          "live_updates": 0
        },
        "async_request_with_webhook": {
          "provider_calls": 1,
          "background_jobs": 2,
          "database_rows": 2,
          "webhooks": 1,
          "live_updates": 1
        },
        "event_driven_request_with_callback": {
          "provider_calls": 1,
          "background_jobs": 5,
          "database_rows": 3,
          "webhooks": 1,
          "live_updates": 4
        }
      },
      "webhook_retries": {
        "attempts": 3,
        "gaps_s": [
          17.2,
          20.1
        ]
      },
      "throughput_indicative": [
        {
          "concurrency": 1,
          "requests": 40,
          "errors": 0,
          "req_per_s": 4.2,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 40,
            "p50": 239.1,
            "p95": 246.9,
            "p99": 253.8
          }
        },
        {
          "concurrency": 5,
          "requests": 200,
          "errors": 0,
          "req_per_s": 21.1,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 200,
            "p50": 238.1,
            "p95": 249.1,
            "p99": 253
          }
        },
        {
          "concurrency": 10,
          "requests": 400,
          "errors": 0,
          "req_per_s": 40.5,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 400,
            "p50": 247.3,
            "p95": 262.3,
            "p99": 328.7
          }
        },
        {
          "concurrency": 25,
          "requests": 1000,
          "errors": 0,
          "req_per_s": 92.1,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 1000,
            "p50": 270.9,
            "p95": 291.2,
            "p99": 298.7
          }
        },
        {
          "concurrency": 50,
          "requests": 2000,
          "errors": 0,
          "req_per_s": 168.9,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
            "n": 2000,
            "p50": 294.3,
            "p95": 324.3,
            "p99": 339.2
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "production_like_repeat": {
      "profile": "production-like, repeat run",
      "machine_load": {
        "sync_overhead": {
          "waited_s": 360,
          "load1_at_start": 3.88,
          "load1_at_end": 1.9,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "failover": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 1.9,
          "load1_at_end": 1.81,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "async_delivery": {
          "waited_s": 0,
          "load1_at_start": 1.81,
          "load1_at_end": 1.8,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "event_driven": {
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          "load1_at_start": 1.8,
          "load1_at_end": 1.79,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        }
      },
      "sync": {
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          "p95": 243.3,
          "p99": 249.2
        },
        "provider_ms": {
          "n": 300,
          "p50": 204,
          "p95": 205,
          "p99": 205
        },
        "added_by_modelriver_ms": {
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          "p99": 45.2
        }
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      "failover": {
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          "answered": 150,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
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            "p95": 240.2,
            "p99": 242
          }
        },
        "primary_500_then_backup": {
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          "end_to_end_ms": {
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            "p95": 260.7,
            "p99": 277.5
          }
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        "primary_429_then_backup": {
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          "answered": 150,
          "end_to_end_ms": {
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            "p95": 261.1,
            "p99": 396.1
          }
        },
        "two_failures_then_backup_2": {
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            "p95": 281.3,
            "p99": 303.5
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            "p95": 26.4,
            "p99": 43.8
          },
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          },
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            "p99": 70.4
          }
        }
      },
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          "p99": 39.1
        },
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          "p99": 4.4
        },
        "queue_wait_ms": {
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        },
        "accepted_to_result_ms": {
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          "p99": 244.2
        },
        "accepted_to_webhook_ms": {
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        }
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          "p95": 295.1,
          "p99": 313.7
        }
      }
    },
    "development_defaults": {
      "profile": "development defaults",
      "machine_load": {
        "sync_overhead": {
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          "load1_at_start": 3.79,
          "load1_at_end": 2.39,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "failover": {
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          "load1_at_start": 2.39,
          "load1_at_end": 2.33,
          "quiet_threshold": 4
        },
        "async_delivery": {
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          "quiet_threshold": 4
        }
      },
      "sync": {
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          "p95": 358.6,
          "p99": 386
        },
        "provider_ms": {
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          "p99": 205
        },
        "added_by_modelriver_ms": {
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        }
      },
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          "end_to_end_ms": {
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            "p95": 358.5,
            "p99": 362.1
          }
        },
        "primary_500_then_backup": {
          "requests": 150,
          "answered": 150,
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            "p95": 373.7,
            "p99": 438.1
          }
        },
        "primary_429_then_backup": {
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            "p95": 372.2,
            "p99": 380.2
          }
        },
        "two_failures_then_backup_2": {
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            "p99": 416.5
          }
        },
        "added_ms": {
          "one_failover_500": {
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            "p99": 87.5
          },
          "one_failover_429": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 10.6,
            "p95": 35.6,
            "p99": 47.6
          },
          "two_failovers": {
            "n": 150,
            "p50": 21.9,
            "p95": 44.9,
            "p99": 61.7
          }
        }
      },
      "async": {
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        "delivered_live": 200,
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          "n": 200,
          "p50": 116.9,
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          "p99": 145.3
        },
        "browser_connected_ms": {
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        },
        "queue_wait_ms": {
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          "p50": 7,
          "p95": 7.8,
          "p99": 8.5
        },
        "accepted_to_result_ms": {
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        },
        "accepted_to_webhook_ms": {
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          "p99": 271.4
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "sdk_reconnect_check": {
    "first_connection_with_token": "join ok",
    "second_connection_with_same_token": "socket rejected",
    "connection_with_token_from_reconnect_endpoint": "join ok"
  },
  "incident_overlap": {
    "window": [
      "2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",
      "2026-11-07T00:00:00+00:00"
    ],
    "window_hours": 2160.0,
    "anthropic_api": {
      "incidents": 29,
      "hours_under_incident": 41.0,
      "share_of_window": 0.01898
    },
    "openai_text_generation": {
      "hours_under_incident": 55.6,
      "share_of_window": 0.02574
    },
    "openai_all_api": {
      "hours_under_incident": 72.51,
      "share_of_window": 0.03357
    },
    "overlap_anthropic_and_openai_text": {
      "hours": 0.99,
      "windows": [
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          "2026-10-06T12:24:32.621000+00:00",
          "2026-10-06T12:43:02.988000+00:00"
        ],
        [
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        ]
      ]
    },
    "anthropic_union_intervals": [
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        "2026-08-12T13:50:28.450000+00:00",
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      ],
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      ],
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      ],
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      ],
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        "2026-08-18T16:20:22.231000+00:00",
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      ],
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      ],
      [
        "2026-08-20T18:32:13.285000+00:00",
        "2026-08-20T19:01:03.844000+00:00"
      ],
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      ],
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        "2026-08-24T05:06:39.483000+00:00",
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      ],
      [
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}